FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.46 – 193.77

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

463 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 114.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.9 ±9.8

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 149.46Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 53.58Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 138.42Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.9 ±9.8

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 156.97Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 12.75Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 24.05Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3501, 6962, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3501, 6962, 841

Auto

25.6 7%

Teleop

235.6 68%

Endgame

85.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 604, 115, 7137

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 604, 115, 7137

Auto

63.3 34%

Teleop

78.4 42%

Endgame

46.3 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.89 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.5pts

Blue projected score193.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.7
Score range: 129–406
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 764 vs event baseline 360.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.9Season APEX615.9

25.6Auto63.3

235.6Teleop78.4

85.4Endgame46.3

96Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	35
teleop	251	157
endgame	129	109
foul	0	0
total	463	301

Result

Final score

463 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 114.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.