FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.5 – 235.89

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±9.8

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 231.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 150.23Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 29.98Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337 ±10.4

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 30.36Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 129.34Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 76.19Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 1671, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.5 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8, 1671, 3598

Auto

44.0 11%

Teleop

263.4 63%

Endgame

108.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 7667, 701

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6814, 7667, 701

Auto

22.8 9%

Teleop

138.0 57%

Endgame

81.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.05 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score411.5pts

Blue projected score235.9pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.6
Score range: 171–477
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 361.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.9Season APEX337

44Auto22.8

263.4Teleop138

108.6Endgame81.4

112Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	22
teleop	248	70
endgame	61	44
foul	0	0
total	369	136

Result

Final score

369 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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