FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

317.47 – 326.46

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 107.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373 ±10.4

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 166.71Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 122.16Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 28.6Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.2 ±9.8

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 70.79Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 156.53Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 99.14Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7419, 649, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7419, 649, 4135

Auto

47.0 15%

Teleop

182.0 58%

Endgame

86.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 972, 5104

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8793, 972, 5104

Auto

84.2 25%

Teleop

162.4 48%

Endgame

91.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score317.5pts

Blue projected score326.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9
Score range: 252–391
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 363.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373Season APEX519.2

47Auto84.2

182Teleop162.4

86Endgame91.9

138Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	47
teleop	40	204
endgame	53	95
foul	0	0
total	122	346

Result

Final score

122 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 107.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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