FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

352.61 – 349.14

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

377 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586.2 ±9.8

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 75.07Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 102.21Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 175.33Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.2 ±9.8

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 20.79Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 173.07Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 155.28Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 840, 2135, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 840, 2135, 4698

Auto

48.4 14%

Teleop

165.7 49%

Endgame

123.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 2073, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10339, 2073, 8048

Auto

52.2 15%

Teleop

197.1 56%

Endgame

105.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score352.6pts

Blue projected score349.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.5
Score range: 284–418
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 719 vs event baseline 363.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586.2Season APEX601.2

48.4Auto52.2

165.7Teleop197.1

123.8Endgame105.2

92Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	68
teleop	132	181
endgame	130	93
foul	15	0
total	377	342

Result

Final score

377 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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