FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

564.52 – 784.02

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

515 – 708

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 869.7 ±9.3

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 228.91Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 63.09Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 272.52Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1038.6 ±9.3

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 128.96Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 284.47Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 370.59Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 581, 192, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

564.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 581, 192, 1323

Auto

147.7 27%

Teleop

312.1 56%

Endgame

95.3 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5507, 9470, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

784 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5507, 9470, 254

Auto

155.0 20%

Teleop

386.7 50%

Endgame

230.9 30%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.19 · Blue 3.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score564.5pts

Blue projected score784pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 57%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219.5
Score range: 500–849
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1223 vs event baseline 359.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

869.7Season APEX1038.6

147.7Auto155

312.1Teleop386.7

95.3Endgame230.9

88Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	162
teleop	217	412
endgame	170	119
foul	0	15
total	515	708

Result

Final score

515 – 708

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.