FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.37 – 371.01

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.8 ±10.4

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 79.29Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 14.21Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 77.87Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 619.3 ±9.8

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 89.84Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 271.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 10.04Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3257, 5700, 8033

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3257, 5700, 8033

Auto

34.1 21%

Teleop

110.3 66%

Endgame

21.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2204, 3045, 5817

/ 100 compat

Projected

371 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2204, 3045, 5817

Auto

41.0 11%

Teleop

202.2 56%

Endgame

115.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score171.4pts

Blue projected score371pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -199.6
Score range: 106–436
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 645 vs event baseline 360.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.8Season APEX619.3

34.1Auto41

110.3Teleop202.2

21.9Endgame115.4

195Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	125
teleop	74	247
endgame	24	111
foul	0	0
total	162	483

Result

Final score

162 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.