Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

512.75 – 265.22

96%4%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

480 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 820.6 ±9.3
841The BioMechs
B
Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 179.9Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
2073EagleForce
A+
Season APEX 315Event APEX 186.67Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
971Spartan Robotics
A
Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 146.18Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.6 ±10.4
7419TECH Support
B
Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 137.92Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
5817Uni-Rex
B
Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 68.18Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
701RoboVikes
C
Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 59.12Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 841, 2073, 971
76
/ 100 compat
Projected
512.8 pts
~3.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 841, 2073, 971
Auto
63.9 13%
Teleop
281.1 55%
Endgame
166.0 32%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 44%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7419, 5817, 701
54
/ 100 compat
Projected
265.2 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7419, 5817, 701
Auto
45.8 18%
Teleop
128.8 49%
Endgame
86.8 33%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 44%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.1 · Blue 1.21
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score512.8pts
Blue projected score265.2pts
Red win probability96%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 73%, blue 71%
Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 39%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
247.5
Score range
195–583
Upset likelihood
4%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 845 vs event baseline 387.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

820.6Season APEX414.6
63.9Auto45.8
281.1Teleop128.8
166Endgame86.8
96Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto3562
teleop272214
endgame17389
foul00
total480365

Result

Final score

480 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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