FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.15 – 54.09

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 133 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.3 ±10.4

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 108.09Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 62.76Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 112.3Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.8 ±9.8

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX -9.34Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 24.4Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 39.03Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6418, 766, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6418, 766, 670

Auto

28.8 11%

Teleop

133.8 49%

Endgame

107.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3256, 253, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3256, 253, 6305

Auto

32.9 77%

Teleop

-11.4 0%

Endgame

21.2 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score283.2pts

Blue projected score54.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 229.1
Score range: -11–348
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 362.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.3Season APEX483.8

28.8Auto32.9

133.8Teleop-11.4

107.8Endgame21.2

137Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	97
teleop	61	95
endgame	82	65
foul	35	0
total	220	257

Result

Final score

220 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 133 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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