FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.46 – 321.17

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 80.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.8 ±10.4

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX -18.77Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 65.72Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 29.51Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541 ±9.8

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 141.04Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -16.05Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 196.18Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 115, 3970, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 115, 3970, 6962

Auto

-14.1 0%

Teleop

57.1 80%

Endgame

28.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1967, 4990, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1967, 4990, 6036

Auto

78.1 26%

Teleop

157.7 52%

Endgame

69.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score76.5pts

Blue projected score321.2pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -244.7
Score range: 10–387
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 364.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.8Season APEX541

-14.1Auto78.1

57.1Teleop157.7

28.7Endgame69.2

106Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	55
teleop	112	128
endgame	48	127
foul	0	0
total	226	310

Result

Final score

226 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 80.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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