FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

346.47 – 347.44

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

290 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488.7 ±9.8

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 206.25Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 73.43Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 66.79Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.4 ±9.3

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 149.62Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 134.54Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 63.28Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1868, 701, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1868, 701, 6662

Auto

87.6 26%

Teleop

164.8 49%

Endgame

82.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 604, 3501, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 604, 3501, 5419

Auto

28.8 9%

Teleop

205.6 61%

Endgame

100.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.5pts

Blue projected score347.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1
Score range: 280–413
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 636 vs event baseline 364.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488.7Season APEX717.4

87.6Auto28.8

164.8Teleop205.6

82.1Endgame100.2

98Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	92
teleop	122	138
endgame	57	116
foul	0	0
total	290	346

Result

Final score

290 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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