FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

410.52 – 575.39

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

393 – 493

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697 ±9.3

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 158.92Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 174.76Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 76.84Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 892.9 ±8.7

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 178.94Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 147.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 248.98Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 972, 2073, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 972, 2073, 840

Auto

78.3 19%

Teleop

228.6 56%

Endgame

103.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6238, 2813, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

575.4 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6238, 2813, 5940

Auto

94.1 16%

Teleop

285.7 50%

Endgame

194.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score410.5pts

Blue projected score575.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.9
Score range: 346–640
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 886 vs event baseline 361.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697Season APEX892.9

78.3Auto94.1

228.6Teleop285.7

103.2Endgame194.7

45Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	36
teleop	187	278
endgame	174	179
foul	0	0
total	393	493

Result

Final score

393 – 493

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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