FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

481.44 – 185.14

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

646 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 101.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 897.1 ±9.3

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 136.48Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 204.34Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 140.62Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.8 ±10.4

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 15.84Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 58.9Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 110.4Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1671, 581, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

481.4 pts

~3.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1671, 581, 4698

Auto

106.6 22%

Teleop

303.2 63%

Endgame

72.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7137, 192, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7137, 192, 649

Auto

57.5 31%

Teleop

76.9 41%

Endgame

52.3 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.27 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score481.4pts

Blue projected score185.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 52%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 296.3
Score range: 120–546
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 869 vs event baseline 360.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

897.1Season APEX353.8

106.6Auto57.5

303.2Teleop76.9

72.8Endgame52.3

101Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	42
teleop	355	117
endgame	167	49
foul	5	15
total	646	223

Result

Final score

646 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 101.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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