Qualification · Qualification 53
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
268.88 – 733.34
2%98%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
312 – 849
Prediction correct · off by 79.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.8 ±10.4
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 147.74Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 21.21Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151Event APEX 99.93Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1011.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 364.63Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 110.06Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 258.65Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8048, 6814, 2135
53
/ 100 compatProjected
268.9 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8048, 6814, 2135
Auto
31.4 12%
Teleop
128.6 47%
Endgame
112.7 41%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 71%
Supercharged: 32%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 254, 7667, 1323
86
/ 100 compatProjected
733.3 pts
~3.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 254, 7667, 1323
Auto
123.7 17%
Teleop
388.8 54%
Endgame
211.9 29%
Strengths
- · 254 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 71%
Supercharged: 32%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 3.21
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score268.9pts
Blue projected score733.3pts
Red win probability2%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 71%, blue 67%
Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 56%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -464.5
- Score range
- 205–797
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
409.8Season APEX1011.9
31.4Auto123.7
128.6Teleop388.8
112.7Endgame211.9
128Consistency97
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 58 | 213 |
| teleop | 180 | 455 |
| endgame | 74 | 181 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 312 | 849 |
Result
Final score
312 – 849
Prediction correct · off by 79.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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