FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

237.19 – 283.33

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

422 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 97.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.5 ±9.3

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 133.35Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 92.71Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 11.13Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.7 ±10.4

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 38.62Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 117.28Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 127.43Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 5507, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5026, 5507, 6665

Auto

71.5 30%

Teleop

142.4 60%

Endgame

24.4 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4135, 9400, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4135, 9400, 841

Auto

16.6 6%

Teleop

179.8 67%

Endgame

73.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score237.2pts

Blue projected score283.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.1
Score range: 173–347
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 695 vs event baseline 356.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.5Season APEX488.7

71.5Auto16.6

142.4Teleop179.8

24.4Endgame73.3

127Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	66
teleop	230	145
endgame	85	62
foul	0	0
total	422	273

Result

Final score

422 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 97.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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