FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

541.3 – 328.25

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

482 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 91.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 692.7 ±9.8

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 50.34Rank 29Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 191.7Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 299.26Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.6 ±9.8

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 51.48Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 220.15Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 56.62Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1072, 7419, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

541.3 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1072, 7419, 9470

Auto

101.3 19%

Teleop

273.5 51%

Endgame

156.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 846, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10339, 846, 3598

Auto

55.4 17%

Teleop

195.6 58%

Endgame

84.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.06 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score541.3pts

Blue projected score328.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213
Score range: 264–605
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 356.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

692.7Season APEX421.6

101.3Auto55.4

273.5Teleop195.6

156.8Endgame84.3

120Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	55
teleop	268	80
endgame	105	69
foul	0	0
total	482	204

Result

Final score

482 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 91.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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