FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

264.61 – 358.8

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

224 – 579

Prediction correct · off by 130.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.3 ±10.4

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 95.48Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 66.25Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 102.88Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 739 ±9.3

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 80.12Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 155.41Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 123.27Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6418, 115, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6418, 115, 7667

Auto

38.3 15%

Teleop

142.7 55%

Endgame

79.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1967, 5026, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1967, 5026, 6238

Auto

73.4 21%

Teleop

199.2 56%

Endgame

83.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.46 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score264.6pts

Blue projected score358.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.2
Score range: 195–429
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 803 vs event baseline 387.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.3Season APEX739

38.3Auto73.4

142.7Teleop199.2

79.9Endgame83.2

38Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	130
teleop	131	342
endgame	62	107
foul	0	0
total	224	579

Result

Final score

224 – 579

Prediction correct · off by 130.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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