FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

378.61 – 384.26

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

459 – 378

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 896.5 ±8.7

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 206.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 189.17Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX -17.23Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.5 ±9.8

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 297.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 82.54Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 4.36Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 1868, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8, 1868, 3256

Auto

96.1 26%

Teleop

216.4 59%

Endgame

57.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3045, 8793, 253

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3045, 8793, 253

Auto

69.0 18%

Teleop

221.4 58%

Endgame

93.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score378.6pts

Blue projected score384.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.6
Score range: 315–448
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 837 vs event baseline 357.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

896.5Season APEX597.5

96.1Auto69

216.4Teleop221.4

57Endgame93.8

77Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	109
teleop	158	146
endgame	193	123
foul	30	0
total	459	378

Result

Final score

459 – 378

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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