FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

246.02 – 390.35

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

344 – 615

Prediction correct · off by 161.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.1 ±9.8

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 81.52Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 46.25Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 118.25Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 881.8 ±9.3

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 84.38Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 184.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 121.2Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 766, 840, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

246 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 766, 840, 3501

Auto

2.8 1%

Teleop

123.9 52%

Endgame

112.8 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6418, 1678, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6418, 1678, 2073

Auto

62.4 17%

Teleop

184.3 50%

Endgame

119.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score246pts

Blue projected score390.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.3
Score range: 182–454
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 959 vs event baseline 355.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.1Season APEX881.8

2.8Auto62.4

123.9Teleop184.3

112.8Endgame119.3

59Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	90
teleop	177	387
endgame	128	138
foul	15	0
total	344	615

Result

Final score

344 – 615

Prediction correct · off by 161.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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