FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

375.54 – 440.46

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 218.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.2 ±9.8

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 108.31Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 18.38Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 248.85Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.8 ±9.8

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 55.29Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 84.73Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 300.44Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5104, 115, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5104, 115, 581

Auto

70.9 18%

Teleop

240.9 63%

Endgame

73.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5817, 5419, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5817, 5419, 5940

Auto

91.0 22%

Teleop

154.0 36%

Endgame

177.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score375.5pts

Blue projected score440.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.9
Score range: 311–505
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 358.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

649.2Season APEX584.8

70.9Auto91

240.9Teleop154

73.4Endgame177.1

72Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	25
teleop	96	69
endgame	40	70
foul	0	5
total	210	169

Result

Final score

210 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 218.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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