Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
362.84 – 123.53
95%5%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
399 – 97
Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 656.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 137.41Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 235.68Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -10.25Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 26.52Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 24.55Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 72.46Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8048, 1323, 4990
68
/ 100 compatProjected
362.8 pts
~3.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8048, 1323, 4990
Auto
74.8 20%
Teleop
180.3 49%
Endgame
110.1 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 38%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6665, 4135, 701
43
/ 100 compatProjected
123.5 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6665, 4135, 701
Auto
22.1 17%
Teleop
64.8 49%
Endgame
45.8 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 38%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3 · Blue 0.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score362.8pts
Blue projected score123.5pts
Red win probability95%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 69%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 23%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 239.3
- Score range
- 59–428
- Upset likelihood
- 5%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
656.1Season APEX374.1
74.8Auto22.1
180.3Teleop64.8
110.1Endgame45.8
110Consistency177
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 127 | 12 |
| teleop | 178 | 40 |
| endgame | 94 | 35 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 399 | 97 |
Result
Final score
399 – 97
Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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