FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

228.26 – 527.84

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494 ±9.8

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 36.3Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 50.83Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 141.13Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 849.2 ±9.3

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 57.01Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 166.6Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 304.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6814, 10339, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6814, 10339, 5026

Auto

66.3 28%

Teleop

85.2 36%

Endgame

86.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6962, 2813, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

527.8 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6962, 2813, 9470

Auto

95.4 18%

Teleop

313.5 61%

Endgame

108.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.9 · Blue 3.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score228.3pts

Blue projected score527.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -299.6
Score range: 163–593
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 597 vs event baseline 363.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494Season APEX849.2

66.3Auto95.4

85.2Teleop313.5

86.3Endgame108.6

27Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	101
teleop	150	207
endgame	6	114
foul	0	5
total	170	427

Result

Final score

170 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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