FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

390.66 – 387.56

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

411 – 432

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 651.5 ±9.8

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 179.98Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 101.95Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 108.73Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 600.8 ±9.8

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 65.26Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 151.56Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 170.74Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6238, 2135, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6238, 2135, 5507

Auto

96.8 25%

Teleop

183.7 47%

Endgame

112.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 114, 4698, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 114, 4698, 7419

Auto

83.3 21%

Teleop

218.5 56%

Endgame

90.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.22 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score390.7pts

Blue projected score387.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 57%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.1
Score range: 323–456
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 843 vs event baseline 362.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

651.5Season APEX600.8

96.8Auto83.3

183.7Teleop218.5

112Endgame90.4

187Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	95
teleop	231	277
endgame	153	55
foul	0	5
total	411	432

Result

Final score

411 – 432

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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