FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

512.72 – 469.28

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

463 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 705.1 ±9.8

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 358.62Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 67.92Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 86.18Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 686.2 ±9.8

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 143.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 126.9Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 198.57Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 254, 3598, 8033

/ 100 compat

Projected

512.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 254, 3598, 8033

Auto

98.9 19%

Teleop

264.1 51%

Endgame

154.2 30%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 841, 1671, 846

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 841, 1671, 846

Auto

54.0 11%

Teleop

292.5 60%

Endgame

138.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.37 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score512.7pts

Blue projected score469.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.4
Score range: 404–578
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 925 vs event baseline 363.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

705.1Season APEX686.2

98.9Auto54

264.1Teleop292.5

154.2Endgame138.6

224Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	57
teleop	250	322
endgame	157	83
foul	20	0
total	463	462

Result

Final score

463 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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