FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

260.86 – 401.78

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 610

Prediction correct · off by 146 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.4 ±10.4

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 67.32Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 113.28Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 80.26Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 792.9 ±9.3

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 156.79Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 262.13Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX -17.14Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5817, 5104, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5817, 5104, 766

Auto

43.6 18%

Teleop

101.2 41%

Endgame

100.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1868, 5940, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1868, 5940, 840

Auto

130.4 32%

Teleop

169.6 42%

Endgame

104.9 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score260.9pts

Blue projected score401.8pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.9
Score range: 196–467
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 787 vs event baseline 362.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.4Season APEX792.9

43.6Auto130.4

101.2Teleop169.6

100.3Endgame104.9

100Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	148
teleop	80	288
endgame	49	154
foul	0	20
total	177	610

Result

Final score

177 – 610

Prediction correct · off by 146 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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