FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

538.22 – 528.51

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

637 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 131.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.6 ±9.8

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 40.33Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 351.55Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 146.34Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 921.1 ±8.7

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 214.27Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 149.22Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 165.02Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6305, 254, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

538.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6305, 254, 1671

Auto

102.4 19%

Teleop

287.5 55%

Endgame

137.0 26%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1678, 3256, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

528.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1678, 3256, 972

Auto

111.2 21%

Teleop

273.0 52%

Endgame

138.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score538.2pts

Blue projected score528.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.7
Score range: 459–608
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1001 vs event baseline 387.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.6Season APEX921.1

102.4Auto111.2

287.5Teleop273

137Endgame138.1

94Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	112
teleop	374	178
endgame	144	74
foul	0	0
total	637	364

Result

Final score

637 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 131.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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