FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

247.74 – 256.04

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 75.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.5 ±9.8

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 55.26Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 73.84Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 118.64Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.5 ±10.4

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 94.39Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 107.32Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 54.33Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5700, 6305, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5700, 6305, 2073

Auto

39.8 17%

Teleop

136.8 57%

Endgame

64.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6662, 5419, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

256 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6662, 5419, 115

Auto

39.3 16%

Teleop

143.5 60%

Endgame

57.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score247.7pts

Blue projected score256pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.3
Score range: 182–322
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 367.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.5Season APEX330.5

39.8Auto39.3

136.8Teleop143.5

64.5Endgame57

127Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	29
teleop	125	53
endgame	39	44
foul	15	0
total	227	126

Result

Final score

227 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 75.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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