FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.69 – 345.56

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 357

Prediction missed · off by 67.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.2 ±10.4

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 102.75Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 123.78Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 198.16Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.6 ±9.8

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 98.05Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 221.16Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 26.35Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 701, 3257, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 701, 3257, 1967

Auto

58.0 13%

Teleop

303.6 71%

Endgame

68.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 581, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8793, 581, 4135

Auto

44.2 13%

Teleop

219.3 66%

Endgame

71.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score424.7pts

Blue projected score345.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.1
Score range: 280–491
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 659 vs event baseline 368.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.2Season APEX583.6

58Auto44.2

303.6Teleop219.3

68.3Endgame71.1

162Consistency182

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	90
teleop	152	184
endgame	125	83
foul	0	0
total	302	357

Result

Final score

302 – 357

Prediction missed · off by 67.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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