Skip to content
Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.09 – 178.88

92%8%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 136 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.7 ±9.8
10339BrainShift
C
Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 84.66Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
649MSET Fish
C
Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 136.63Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
604Quixilver
S
Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 158.8Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.1 ±9.3
3256WarriorBorgs
A
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX -3.02Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4990Basement Bots
D
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 6.99Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
5026Iron Panthers
A+
Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 174.91Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10339, 649, 604
65
/ 100 compat
Projected
380.1 pts
~2.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10339, 649, 604
Auto
54.4 15%
Teleop
205.5 56%
Endgame
106.1 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 31%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3256, 4990, 5026
38
/ 100 compat
Projected
178.9 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3256, 4990, 5026
Auto
63.0 34%
Teleop
112.3 61%
Endgame
8.1 4%
Strengths
  • · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
  • · Thin endgame coverage
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 31%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.81 · Blue 1.11
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score380.1pts
Blue projected score178.9pts
Red win probability92%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 37%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
201.2
Score range
112–447
Upset likelihood
8%
Data cutoff
2026-08-16
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 375.

← PreviousNext →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.7Season APEX660.1
54.4Auto63
205.5Teleop112.3
106.1Endgame8.1
96Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto6419
teleop10131
endgame5314
foul05
total21869

Result

Final score

218 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 136 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.