FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

379.46 – 519.99

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

415 – 531

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 907.6 ±9.3

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 111.7Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 102.76Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 165Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 796.8 ±9.3

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 195.24Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 285.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 39.5Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4698, 5507, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4698, 5507, 1678

Auto

62.5 18%

Teleop

177.0 51%

Endgame

108.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 9470, 6814

/ 100 compat

Projected

520 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6036, 9470, 6814

Auto

107.8 21%

Teleop

305.3 61%

Endgame

90.7 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score379.5pts

Blue projected score520pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.5
Score range: 312–587
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 946 vs event baseline 372.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

907.6Season APEX796.8

62.5Auto107.8

177Teleop305.3

108.7Endgame90.7

168Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	116
teleop	188	171
endgame	87	224
foul	0	20
total	415	531

Result

Final score

415 – 531

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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