FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

251.17 – 556.78

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

216 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.6 ±10.4

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 84.42Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 0.87Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 165.88Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 706.9 ±9.8

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 325.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 160.11Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 71.5Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2135, 253, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2135, 253, 7419

Auto

47.4 18%

Teleop

127.6 49%

Endgame

85.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3045, 9400, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

556.8 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3045, 9400, 6962

Auto

56.2 11%

Teleop

332.6 62%

Endgame

145.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 3.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.2pts

Blue projected score556.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -305.6
Score range: 184–624
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 374.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.6Season APEX706.9

47.4Auto56.2

127.6Teleop332.6

85.1Endgame145.3

201Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	56
teleop	116	294
endgame	49	36
foul	0	15
total	216	401

Result

Final score

216 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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