Qualification · Qualification 33
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
368.85 – 209.03
88%12%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
325 – 359
Prediction missed · off by 96.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 749.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 139.2Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 153.54Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 76.11Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 81.25Rank 29Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 122.83Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 4.95Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1671, 971, 3970
67
/ 100 compatProjected
368.9 pts
~3.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1671, 971, 3970
Auto
52.9 14%
Teleop
207.0 55%
Endgame
117.0 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 76%
Supercharged: 41%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1072, 8048, 6418
53
/ 100 compatProjected
209 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1072, 8048, 6418
Auto
37.1 17%
Teleop
112.4 52%
Endgame
66.5 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 76%
Supercharged: 41%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.95 · Blue 1.35
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score368.9pts
Blue projected score209pts
Red win probability88%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 76%, blue 74%
Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 34%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 159.8
- Score range
- 142–436
- Upset likelihood
- 12%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
749.7Season APEX481.5
52.9Auto37.1
207Teleop112.4
117Endgame66.5
159Consistency182
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 38 | 42 |
| teleop | 179 | 206 |
| endgame | 103 | 111 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 325 | 359 |
Result
Final score
325 – 359
Prediction missed · off by 96.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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