Qualification · Qualification 32
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
487.09 – 261.18
94%6%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
459 – 253
Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 846.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 223.79Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 285Event APEX 168.43Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 94.87Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 108.14Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 142.45Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 10.59Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1323, 6238, 114
76
/ 100 compatProjected
487.1 pts
~3.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1323, 6238, 114
Auto
103.0 21%
Teleop
283.6 58%
Endgame
102.5 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 71%
Supercharged: 56%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 670, 841, 6665
46
/ 100 compatProjected
261.2 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 670, 841, 6665
Auto
-8.5 0%
Teleop
103.4 43%
Endgame
147.2 61%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 71%
Supercharged: 56%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.18 · Blue 1.04
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score487.1pts
Blue projected score261.2pts
Red win probability94%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 71%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 56%, blue 28%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 225.9
- Score range
- 194–554
- Upset likelihood
- 6%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
846.3Season APEX583.6
103Auto-8.5
283.6Teleop103.4
102.5Endgame147.2
56Consistency218
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 95 | 40 |
| teleop | 234 | 154 |
| endgame | 130 | 59 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 459 | 253 |
Result
Final score
459 – 253
Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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