FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

345.96 – 442.39

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

391 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.3 ±9.8

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 72.38Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 91.93Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 181.65Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 636.9 ±9.3

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 89.08Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 176.99Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 176.32Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8033, 7137, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

346 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8033, 7137, 8

Auto

106.6 31%

Teleop

168.7 49%

Endgame

65.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7667, 2813, 846

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7667, 2813, 846

Auto

73.8 16%

Teleop

244.3 55%

Endgame

130.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346pts

Blue projected score442.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.4
Score range: 279–509
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 857 vs event baseline 370.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.3Season APEX636.9

106.6Auto73.8

168.7Teleop244.3

65.6Endgame130

140Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	90
teleop	182	258
endgame	135	118
foul	5	0
total	391	466

Result

Final score

391 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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