FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.7 – 247.18

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 457

Prediction correct · off by 148.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.3 ±10.4

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 30.44Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX -28.95Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 69.21Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.1 ±9.8

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 75.1Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 54.35Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 117.73Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5700, 840, 701

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5700, 840, 701

Auto

28.6 37%

Teleop

65.3 84%

Endgame

-15.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 649, 3257, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 649, 3257, 1868

Auto

47.0 20%

Teleop

117.4 50%

Endgame

69.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score70.7pts

Blue projected score247.2pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -176.5
Score range: 4–314
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 372.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.3Season APEX590.1

28.6Auto47

65.3Teleop117.4

-15.8Endgame69.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	103
teleop	73	248
endgame	66	106
foul	0	0
total	158	457

Result

Final score

158 – 457

Prediction correct · off by 148.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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