Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
433.99 – 200.27
95%5%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
575 – 256
Prediction correct · off by 98.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±9.8
Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 276.77Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 118.92Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 38.3Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 125.79Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 45.52Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 28.96Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9470, 5104, 10339
72
/ 100 compatProjected
434 pts
~3.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9470, 5104, 10339
Auto
81.7 19%
Teleop
236.3 55%
Endgame
111.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3970, 2204, 7137
48
/ 100 compatProjected
200.3 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3970, 2204, 7137
Auto
52.9 26%
Teleop
98.7 49%
Endgame
50.3 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.95 · Blue 1.06
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score434pts
Blue projected score200.3pts
Red win probability95%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%
Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 27%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 233.7
- Score range
- 130–504
- Upset likelihood
- 5%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
645Season APEX445.3
81.7Auto52.9
236.3Teleop98.7
111Endgame50.3
98Consistency63
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 130 | 46 |
| teleop | 330 | 123 |
| endgame | 110 | 87 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 575 | 256 |
Result
Final score
575 – 256
Prediction correct · off by 98.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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