FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

293.75 – 314.29

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 126.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.7 ±9.8

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 48.39Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 153.44Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 91.92Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 774.1 ±9.3

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 107.65Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 32.51Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 174.13Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 604, 6814

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4990, 604, 6814

Auto

66.1 25%

Teleop

132.7 50%

Endgame

68.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2073, 766, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2073, 766, 581

Auto

19.5 6%

Teleop

185.1 58%

Endgame

113.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.8pts

Blue projected score314.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.5
Score range: 227–381
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 642 vs event baseline 374.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.7Season APEX774.1

66.1Auto19.5

132.7Teleop185.1

68.1Endgame113.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	102
teleop	119	251
endgame	29	100
foul	0	5
total	184	458

Result

Final score

184 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 126.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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