FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

514.79 – 192.89

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

814 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 251.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1000.5 ±8.7

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 157.17Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 259.33Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 98.29Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.8 ±9.8

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 100.21Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 85.21Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 7.47Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5940, 3045, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

514.8 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5940, 3045, 5026

Auto

82.6 16%

Teleop

286.2 56%

Endgame

144.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6662, 4698, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6662, 4698, 8793

Auto

35.6 21%

Teleop

105.8 61%

Endgame

31.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.11 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score514.8pts

Blue projected score192.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 321.9
Score range: 127–581
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1211 vs event baseline 366.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1000.5Season APEX501.8

82.6Auto35.6

286.2Teleop105.8

144.5Endgame31.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	144	83
teleop	423	193
endgame	247	101
foul	0	20
total	814	397

Result

Final score

814 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 251.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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