FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.56 – 174.24

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.4 ±9.8

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 186.87Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 91.7Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 46.99Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.3 ±10.4

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 34.91Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 104.75Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 34.58Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6036, 6305, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6036, 6305, 3598

Auto

86.2 27%

Teleop

184.4 59%

Endgame

42.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4135, 2135, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4135, 2135, 192

Auto

26.0 15%

Teleop

84.5 50%

Endgame

57.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.65 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325.6pts

Blue projected score174.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.3
Score range: 107–393
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 549 vs event baseline 369.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.4Season APEX367.3

86.2Auto26

184.4Teleop84.5

42.9Endgame57.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	33
teleop	195	102
endgame	64	84
foul	0	0
total	330	219

Result

Final score

330 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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