FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

329.55 – 335.51

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 95 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.7 ±10.4

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 83.57Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 164.45Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 81.53Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 680.2 ±9.3

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 143.92Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 94.54Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 97.05Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3970, 8048, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3970, 8048, 5419

Auto

68.3 20%

Teleop

190.4 57%

Endgame

76.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7419, 972, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7419, 972, 3501

Auto

44.8 13%

Teleop

196.9 56%

Endgame

112.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.02 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score329.5pts

Blue projected score335.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 51%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6
Score range: 264–402
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 810 vs event baseline 368.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.7Season APEX680.2

68.3Auto44.8

190.4Teleop196.9

76.7Endgame112.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	54
teleop	127	285
endgame	146	159
foul	0	5
total	307	503

Result

Final score

307 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 95 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree