FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

412.75 – 379.01

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

545 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 101.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.8 ±9.8

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 120.04Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 135.24Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 157.47Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.9 ±10.4

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 81.85Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 117.08Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 180.08Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 841, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8, 841, 1967

Auto

55.1 13%

Teleop

246.2 59%

Endgame

113.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 670, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

379 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10339, 670, 1671

Auto

64.3 18%

Teleop

192.0 54%

Endgame

97.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score412.8pts

Blue projected score379pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.7
Score range: 314–478
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 854 vs event baseline 361.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.8Season APEX555.9

55.1Auto64.3

246.2Teleop192

113.3Endgame97.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	37
teleop	345	157
endgame	138	115
foul	0	0
total	545	309

Result

Final score

545 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 101.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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