FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.5 – 337.74

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

229 – 515

Prediction missed · off by 152.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458 ±9.8

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 227.97Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 43.5Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 85.03Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 702.3 ±9.8

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 90.93Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 227.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 18.92Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 253, 5817

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 846, 253, 5817

Auto

60.1 18%

Teleop

200.0 59%

Endgame

77.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 114, 9470, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 114, 9470, 7667

Auto

70.6 21%

Teleop

216.8 64%

Endgame

51.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.09 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score356.5pts

Blue projected score337.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 56%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.8
Score range: 273–422
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 744 vs event baseline 361.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458Season APEX702.3

60.1Auto70.6

200Teleop216.8

77.9Endgame51.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	97
teleop	89	304
endgame	98	114
foul	0	0
total	229	515

Result

Final score

229 – 515

Prediction missed · off by 152.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.