FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.46 – 323.91

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

299 – 403

Prediction missed · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.3 ±10.4

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 167.98Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 47.54Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 143.94Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.4 ±9.8

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 99.15Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 149.74Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 75.02Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9400, 6418, 5104

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9400, 6418, 5104

Auto

73.8 22%

Teleop

218.0 65%

Endgame

43.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5507, 2813, 8033

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5507, 2813, 8033

Auto

71.7 22%

Teleop

168.6 51%

Endgame

88.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.33 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score359.5pts

Blue projected score323.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.5
Score range: 259–424
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 361.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.3Season APEX637.4

73.8Auto71.7

218Teleop168.6

43.7Endgame88.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	90
teleop	128	209
endgame	112	94
foul	5	10
total	299	403

Result

Final score

299 – 403

Prediction missed · off by 69.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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