FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.76 – 411.46

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 504

Prediction correct · off by 117.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.8 ±9.8

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 74Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 144.98Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 35.78Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 827.3 ±9.3

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 131.61Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 80Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 199.85Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3256, 115, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3256, 115, 2204

Auto

49.3 19%

Teleop

115.7 45%

Endgame

94.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 971, 7137, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 971, 7137, 1323

Auto

83.7 21%

Teleop

199.4 49%

Endgame

122.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score254.8pts

Blue projected score411.5pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -156.7
Score range: 189–477
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 364.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.8Season APEX827.3

49.3Auto83.7

115.7Teleop199.4

94Endgame122.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	137
teleop	56	222
endgame	21	135
foul	15	10
total	113	504

Result

Final score

113 – 504

Prediction correct · off by 117.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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