FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.86 – 291.5

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.1 ±9.8

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 130.13Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 74.87Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 50.86Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605.8 ±9.8

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 102.21Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 138.43Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 50.86Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5940, 4990, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5940, 4990, 5700

Auto

60.0 24%

Teleop

104.7 42%

Endgame

83.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2135, 604, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2135, 604, 3598

Auto

53.6 20%

Teleop

151.2 56%

Endgame

63.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.64 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.9pts

Blue projected score291.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.6
Score range: 190–358
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 367.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.1Season APEX605.8

60Auto53.6

104.7Teleop151.2

83.1Endgame63

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	69
teleop	124	161
endgame	97	83
foul	0	0
total	302	313

Result

Final score

302 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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