FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

517.14 – 692.62

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

537 – 821

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 907.6 ±8.7

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 191.89Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 152.86Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 172.39Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 960.9 ±8.7

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 162.56Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 284.99Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 245.07Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 581, 3501, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

517.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 581, 3501, 2813

Auto

82.4 16%

Teleop

284.7 56%

Endgame

144.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 846, 1323, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

692.6 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 846, 1323, 3045

Auto

158.7 23%

Teleop

365.8 53%

Endgame

166.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.48 · Blue 3.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score517.1pts

Blue projected score692.6pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -175.5
Score range: 447–763
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1358 vs event baseline 387.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

907.6Season APEX960.9

82.4Auto158.7

284.7Teleop365.8

144.6Endgame166.6

118Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	119
teleop	352	467
endgame	155	230
foul	5	5
total	537	821

Result

Final score

537 – 821

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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