FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.18 – 332.77

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

270 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.3 ±9.8

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 60Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 79.13Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 50.05Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.6 ±9.8

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 109.7Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 98.68Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 124.39Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4698, 701, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4698, 701, 766

Auto

45.9 23%

Teleop

118.5 59%

Endgame

35.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 972, 3970, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 972, 3970, 6662

Auto

78.9 23%

Teleop

173.6 51%

Endgame

87.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 2.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score189.2pts

Blue projected score332.8pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.6
Score range: 122–400
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 372.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.3Season APEX514.6

45.9Auto78.9

118.5Teleop173.6

35Endgame87.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	48
teleop	139	208
endgame	85	30
foul	0	0
total	270	286

Result

Final score

270 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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