FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.12 – 187.97

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±9.8

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 30.94Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 39.23Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 119.95Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.7 ±10.4

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 64.63Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 30.94Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 92.4Rank 29Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8793, 6665, 6814

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8793, 6665, 6814

Auto

48.8 26%

Teleop

90.7 48%

Endgame

51.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 192, 840, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

188 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 192, 840, 1072

Auto

29.8 17%

Teleop

92.2 53%

Endgame

52.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score190.1pts

Blue projected score188pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.2
Score range: 118–260
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 387.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387Season APEX407.7

48.8Auto29.8

90.7Teleop92.2

51.4Endgame52.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	31	44
endgame	46	45
foul	15	15
total	117	123

Result

Final score

117 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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