FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.55 – 374.52

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

422 – 528

Prediction missed · off by 77.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 612.6 ±9.8

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 92.29Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 192.42Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 138.84Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 822.3 ±9.3

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 153.09Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 81.43Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 140Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 649, 6238, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 649, 6238, 841

Auto

54.8 13%

Teleop

247.1 59%

Endgame

119.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 8, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6036, 8, 8048

Auto

66.3 19%

Teleop

190.3 54%

Endgame

93.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.42 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score423.6pts

Blue projected score374.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 81%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49
Score range: 306–493
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 950 vs event baseline 381.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

612.6Season APEX822.3

54.8Auto66.3

247.1Teleop190.3

119.1Endgame93.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	101
teleop	214	327
endgame	170	100
foul	0	0
total	422	528

Result

Final score

422 – 528

Prediction missed · off by 77.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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