FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.25 – 354.68

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 132.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662.3 ±9.8

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 174.25Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 42.86Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 163.14Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.8 ±10.4

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 145.05Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 41.15Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 168.48Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 581, 114, 9400

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 581, 114, 9400

Auto

45.8 13%

Teleop

231.4 64%

Endgame

83.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6305, 7667, 10339

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6305, 7667, 10339

Auto

76.1 22%

Teleop

214.4 61%

Endgame

62.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score380.3pts

Blue projected score354.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 53%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.6
Score range: 285–450
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 651 vs event baseline 388.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662.3Season APEX362.8

45.8Auto76.1

231.4Teleop214.4

83.1Endgame62

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	37
teleop	304	76
endgame	76	67
foul	20	0
total	471	180

Result

Final score

471 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 132.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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