FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

304.09 – 372.03

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

310 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.3 ±9.8

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 137.14Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 64.57Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 102.38Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 666.5 ±9.3

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 64.57Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 137.14Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 170.32Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2073, 3257, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2073, 3257, 5507

Auto

42.4 14%

Teleop

163.8 55%

Endgame

91.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 51%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 253, 971, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

372 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 253, 971, 2813

Auto

35.1 9%

Teleop

229.4 62%

Endgame

105.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 51%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score304.1pts

Blue projected score372pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 51%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.9
Score range: 233–443
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 392.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.3Season APEX666.5

42.4Auto35.1

163.8Teleop229.4

91.6Endgame105.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	82
teleop	174	178
endgame	95	80
foul	0	0
total	310	340

Result

Final score

310 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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